COP27 is set to begin on November 7 in Egypt, as countries around the world remain gripped by an energy crisis and geopolitical turmoil. The war in Ukraine has made oil scarce, complicating the global consensus to cut coal and natural gas production. In Europe, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested temporarily reviving coal plants and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi begged for additional funding for fossil fuel projects to meet the continent’s energy demands this winter.

Europe, as well as other prolific emitters, will have to answer to poorer countries that are suffering climate impacts. Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry plans to prioritize ‘loss and damage’ talks to help poorer nations mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Though the US will arrive in Egypt with a piece of long-awaited climate legislation that will invest billions into curbing carbon emissions and expanding clean energy, they too will be grilled on how to address loss and damages for their historically high GHG emissions. Additionally, the climate bill has caused ripples among European economists, with French foreign minister,  Catherine Colonna, saying “it risked unfair competition”, despite reinforcing that Europe does not want a ‘green trade war.’

Why This Matters

While COP27 will seek to create accountability for the implementation of climate pledges, many in the developing world attack the west’s push to limit the use of fossil fuels by other countries, while they have profited off them for centuries. A plan to build a new oil pipeline between Uganda and Tanzania is the latest controversy that had the EU denounce its construction, citing “environmental and climate concerns”. The Ugandan and Tanzanian governments dismissed them, arguing that their countries already use over 80% renewable energy sources and oil production would supercharge their economies. The EU intervention also comes after European leaders reopen coal-fired plants and lease new natural gas terminals because divestments from fossil fuels have not been made fast enough. COP27 will need to address the disconnect between economic development in low-emitter countries and climate targets made by wealthy Western nations.

The Climate Crisis will Exacerbate Geopolitical Instability

A growing body of research highlights climate change’s role in exacerbating geopolitical instability across the globe. Warming temperatures and extreme weather events can worsen social stress and amplify economic downturns, causing crime, conflict, and governmental failure.

In the US, the Biden Administration is addressing the threat climate change poses to the country’s national security. Last week, the White House published the 2022 National Security Strategy, which for the first time listed climate change as a significant threat. The report emphasized the importance of achieving the Paris Agreement’s targets in order to stabilize geopolitical relations. Backtracking on climate action at COP27 could put all of this in jeopardy, dooming global stability and security, not just for countries like the US and in Europe, but particularly for poorer countries. The success of COP27 will hinge on “tangible, implementable outcomes” for climate action and reinforced commitments to financial support for countries struggling to adapt to climate change impacts.